What is wrong with GOP voters?
Certainly that is a question that many Democrats and pundits and GOP leadership are asking themselves as they watch the inexplicable popularity of GOP presidential "candidates" like Donald Trump and Ben Carson. But, as many political observers concede, the GOP electorate has a history of flirting with the "outsider" candidate who talks tough about fixing Washington. Eventually, the primary voters send the outsiders home and support a candidate who can actually appeal to a broader voter base, including independents and conservative Democrats, and who can actually compete in the general election. This year the GOP candidate field features basically three of those: Florida Senator Marco Rubio, New Jersy Governor Chris Christie, and Ohio Governor John Kasich. And, while any of the three will be a strong challenger to Hillary Clinton, I can't figure out why John Kasich is polling so low.
In John Kasich, GOP faithful have a Reagan-era Republican leader with a strong history of fiscal conservatism, and who happens to be a Republican governor of Ohio, which is a strong Democratic swing state that is pivotal in the race for the White House in 2016. How is that not a Republican dream candidate? Kasich is a successful Republican leader who appeals across the spectrum, and he has been that for decades. He's been a strong state and national legislator, serving in the Ohio Senate as well as the US House of Representatives. And, in a state that has swung Democratic in all the recent close Presidential races, Kasich has been a popular and successful governor who can work across the aisles to appeal to both Democrats and Republicans - or at least the moderate, rational ones in each party.
Truly, if the GOP actually wants to take on Hillary Clinton and run a competitive race, the best choices are Rubio, Christie, and Kasich. And, really, the best of all three is John Kasich.
Will the GOP primary voters ever wake up?
5 comments:
Because he's not the right choice for the GOP, but more importantly, for the United States.
That's silly - and I hope your reasoning isn't that RINO nonsense. He's the most skilled legislator and political leader in the GOP field.
Question is: who's better?
And, I am desperately hoping you don't say Trump, Carson, or Fiorina.
He's the most skilled legislator and political leader in the GOP field.
And that is the problem. The party base has seen one great political leaders and skilled legislator after another. Bob Dole. John McCain. Mitt Romney. Each one ran against a weak Democrat and each one got their asses kicked.
Can’t remember who said it last week but it was right on about Kasich, “I remember when he was a conservative.” He was a conservative when he was part of the Gingrich revolution of 95 and arguably helped led this country to a balanced budget.
However, after leaving the House and going to the governor’s mansion, he’s moved left. And he’s wrong on multiple critical issues.
Obamacare. First he expanded Medicaid, knowing federal funding will be cut at some future point. This insures a future Ohio governor will have to deal with a massive budget shortfall. And a critical issue is the repeal of Obamacare and actual reform of health care, with more market solutions. If he has already bought off on Obamacare, he won’t get the base and as in 2012, millions of potential Republican voters will stay home.
Amnesty: Kasich is pro-amnesty, enough said.
Those are two litmus test issues for the Republicans and what we used to call “Reagan Democrats”. Without them, he may win the nomination but he will not win a general.
To answer you second question first, no, I would no want either of those people as president.
Trump is, when you strip it all down, not a republican or democrat, or a liberal or conservative, he’s Trump, and about Trump first, last and always. But to the largest degree, better than Carson, Fiorina or even Cruz or Paul, he’s tapped into something. The hostility of the American voter to the Washington DC ruling class.
Bush was the establishment’s candidate and he’s on life support (And no, he’s not dead yet, my prayers have not been answered). The establishment wants someone who will keep the federal reserve spigots flowing, keep Obamacare in place, get amnesty through and they will get that with Bush (and Rubio, Mrs. Bill Clinton, Graham and Christy). But voters are angry seeing how the country has deteriorated in the last 7 years and they want change.
Trump is an embodiment of change, even if he’s just a symbol. Personally I believe he will be out by February/March. And while I have the upmost respect of Dr Carson or Ms Fiorina, a person’s first elected position should not be the highest office in the land (I think we’ll agree on that). I believe Carson should set his sights a little more realistic, like Governor of Maryland or Mayor of Baltimore. Fiorina, perhaps a SecDef or SecCom or SecTres.
Of the remaining Republicans, Cruz would be my first choice. He’s right on the issues (Repeal Obamacare, revoke every illegal order of the Obama regime, secure the border and start enforcing our existing immigration laws, end QE-XXX (or whatever it’s up to), actually pass a budget, reign in the NSAs spying on American citizens), he’s got a great story to tell and sell (child of an escapee from Cuba, great college and law school record, he actually has an academic record (unlike the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave), a superb profession record (including multiple Supreme Court victories). In a debate he would wipe the flood with Mrs. Bill Clinton (and any other possible Democratic, including the crazy socialist Barney or Fauxahantus if she jumped in). And unlike Jeb!, Cruz has a base of support. As of last month he was second in fund raising (Second to Jeb!) but it was smaller per donation and wider. He’s gotten donations from over half the zip codes in this country.
The remainder, I would probably be in the Paul bankwagon, although he is on death’s door, he won’t last much past the new year. I would have like to have Jindal or Perry as a possibility, but they fell. Perry was a bit RINO, but he was still someone I could vote for. For most of the rest, it’s varying degrees of voting for/voting against. However, if the RINOs succeed in getting Jeb!, Christy or Graham (this is far from over and a brokered convention is not out of the realm of possibility) I will either write in a name or for the first time in my life not vote.
Back to Trump, one question that is open. Last March there was an interesting poll. Now to set this up, Jeb! was the man, Trump was not in this and Cruz had either just announced or was about to, so he was flavor of the week. A poll showed (going by memory here) Jeb! with 15%, Cruz 12%, Paul, etc and go down the line. Now there was an interesting follow on question. “If your candidate fell out for any reason, who would you vote for?” For Bush, his voters fell to Christy, Graham, etc. For all of the other high rankers, the voters went to other candidates, almost none to Jeb! Again, Jeb! has a narrow range of support. Now fast forward that to now, if Trump dropped out next week, where does his support go? I can tell you it won’t go to Jeb! or Kasich.
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